Farage has set a deadline of 7 May for defections. This deadline will be 7 May 2029. Farage will keeping courting Tory politicians until the next GE; it makes perfect political sense to do so.
I think the only risk to Nigel/Reform not taken into account here is an irony...by taking more 'wet' Conservative defectors, voters may say they might as well go back to the Conservatives than a diluted Reform?
It seems to me that a "wet" Tory - as some of the defections clearly are - becomes dry as soon as they get the Reform colours. It is the branding of the parties overall driving so much of their polling/momentum rather than individual defections. Interestingly, from polling and focus groups, the Robert Jenrick defection, while great drama to Westminster, wasn't a huge story for the wider public. I think rather than voters being annoyed and leaving Reform, I think the risk Farage faces is upsetting his own activists, who are much more sensitive to all of this than the wider Reform voting/considering public.
Conservatives 'drying' themselves on the warmth of Reform :). Sounds funny - except possibly a bit disingenuous of almost everyone in that transaction! Thanks for your view of the 'inside' vs 'outside'.
This is a fair summary of the state of play. Wishful thinkers in the Conservatives (friends and colleagues) currently think that once immigration is fixed and if we go a bit further "Right" people will become more concerned about Economic Management and the Conservatives position will improve. More in Common "segmentation research" and Strephen Davies new book show that to be very unlikely. The more volatile voters are anti the "System" and wish it to be disrupted. They think that the issue is not just economic management but nationalism and politicians caring about them.Peter Taylor
I agree completely - particularly with the evidence presented by Stephen Davies' new book. Politicians have not caught up to the new alignment/realignment, and I am not even sure if Farage and Reform have fully realised it yet. As Stephen Davies has said, this is not how I want things to be but it is how things are.
An attitude and skill that fewer aspire to these days of postmodern subjectivity, hence the need to promote it. Well done.
Good logic, Harry.
Thank you! I was trying to be as objective as possible in my analysis - no dog in the fight.
I think the only risk to Nigel/Reform not taken into account here is an irony...by taking more 'wet' Conservative defectors, voters may say they might as well go back to the Conservatives than a diluted Reform?
It seems to me that a "wet" Tory - as some of the defections clearly are - becomes dry as soon as they get the Reform colours. It is the branding of the parties overall driving so much of their polling/momentum rather than individual defections. Interestingly, from polling and focus groups, the Robert Jenrick defection, while great drama to Westminster, wasn't a huge story for the wider public. I think rather than voters being annoyed and leaving Reform, I think the risk Farage faces is upsetting his own activists, who are much more sensitive to all of this than the wider Reform voting/considering public.
Conservatives 'drying' themselves on the warmth of Reform :). Sounds funny - except possibly a bit disingenuous of almost everyone in that transaction! Thanks for your view of the 'inside' vs 'outside'.
This is a fair summary of the state of play. Wishful thinkers in the Conservatives (friends and colleagues) currently think that once immigration is fixed and if we go a bit further "Right" people will become more concerned about Economic Management and the Conservatives position will improve. More in Common "segmentation research" and Strephen Davies new book show that to be very unlikely. The more volatile voters are anti the "System" and wish it to be disrupted. They think that the issue is not just economic management but nationalism and politicians caring about them.Peter Taylor
I agree completely - particularly with the evidence presented by Stephen Davies' new book. Politicians have not caught up to the new alignment/realignment, and I am not even sure if Farage and Reform have fully realised it yet. As Stephen Davies has said, this is not how I want things to be but it is how things are.
Yep!
Peter Taylor