“Tories in Disguise”? Why Reform Doesn’t Mind Looking a Bit More Conservative
Farage has set a deadline of 7 May for defections. This deadline will be 7 May 2029. Farage will keeping courting Tory politicians until the next GE; it makes perfect political sense to do so.
What is that I hear? Is it the sound of journalists pounding down Whitehall to yet another hastily arranged Reform UK press conference, lured by the promise of a fresh Tory scalp? In recent months, the mere whisper of a Reform lectern has been enough to send cameras and correspondents running in the hope of witnessing the next defection. Each time Nigel Farage appears, he seems to savour the ritual, unveiling another Conservative – from those in local government to former Secretaries of State – and enjoying every opportunity to twist the knife into the Conservative Party.
Andrew Rosindell, Robert Jenrick, and Suella Braverman are the three most recent high-profile defections. We will no doubt see this spectacle repeated several more times as we approach the May local elections.
After each of these Conservative MPs defected, we heard much of both the print and broadcast media ask Nigel Farage if this meant that Reform is now just the party for disgruntled ex-Tory MPs. We’ve heard rumblings from those on the right of and in Reform that it will no longer be an insurgent party and that it will lose voters if it continues to gobble up Tory politicians.
I have no dog in this fight, but much of the media commentary around the defections has completely misunderstood the strategy that I believe is being deployed by Farage and his team, and why defections will keep coming up until the day candidate nominations for the next GE close! Farage may have set a 7 May deadline for defections to Reform, but this deadline will prove as soft as his once-fierce commitment to free market economics
Our country is split 50-50
Our country is effectively split 50-50 between right-wing and left-wing political parties. Reform had success at the last election by building up a voter coalition made up largely of ex-Tories and first-time voters/long-time absent voters. Nearly 80% of 2024 Reform voters previously voted Conservative, and 25% of 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform in 20241. Reform also won over a majority of 2024 non-voters who now say they will “definitely vote”2. Yes, it has other voting blocks within it, but these two groups make up most of its base. The latter is an incredibly unreliable voting base. Research shows that newly mobilised non-voters and first-time voters have significantly lower and more volatile turnout patterns than habitual voters, and mobilisation efforts targeting chronic non-voters have weak effects, particularly in low-engagement contexts. Reform has already milked this group for as much as it can.
In contrast, Conservative voters tend to be quite a reliable voting base - age is also a key factor in this - and there is about 18-20% of the electorate who currently say that they will vote Conservative at the next General Election. As polls have shown, many of these individuals have positive views of Farage and Reform. Among 2024 Conservative voters, 51% trust Reform UK to represent people like them, and on key issues like immigration, Conservative voters show net positive trust in Reform3.
Reform can sway these Conservative/Reform waverers by not only utilising the personal support that individuals like Jenrick and Braverman have with Conservative voters, but also by continuously showing the public figure after figure leave the Conservative Party for Reform. If the parties’ own MPs, former cabinet members, and high-profile supporters are making the move to Reform, then many of these voters will ask why they aren’t doing the same. This stream of momentum will carry some ofthe current Tory voters across the line.
Reform can break its ceiling of approximately 30% if it can win over only a minority, albeit a significant one, of those who currently plan to vote Conservative at the next election. Figures like Jenrick and Braverman defecting to Reform will help to win over Conservative/Tory wavering. Farage and his team have realised that, ultimately, they will need to win over more Tory voters if they want to have a chance to form a majority government at the next election.
There is no major political party to the right of Reform
The second reason that Reform’s strategy of accepting Tory defections will continue to work in their favour is linked to the first: it doesn’t matter if Reform seems slightly watered down or loses a bit of its insurgent edge, as there is no major political party to the right of Reform. There are some minor ones that will no doubt run candidates at the next GE, such as Ben Habib’s Advance UK, UKIP, and possibly a new Rupert Lowe-led political party. Maybe even Lawrence Fox’s Reclaim will make a comeback.
These parties that can actually “out Reform-Reform” will run in some seats and take some votes from Reform, but their impact will be limited by the fact that they will only run candidates in scores of seats at most, rather than hundreds. Similarly, they will lack serious name recognition with the public, bar possibly UKIP, who are the least threatening of any of these minor parties anyway.
A voter may be frustrated by Farage bringing ex-Tories onboard but if there is no political party to the right of Reform to vote for, then where can they go? Similarly, Farage has realised that the small number of voters he may lose to these parties will be outweighed by those gained from the Tories.
Experience for Government
Finally, if Reform wins the next General Election and is able to form a Government, whether this is as a majority Government or in coalition with the Conservative Party, it will need to fill hundreds of ministerial roles. It will need to do this despite having hundreds of newly elected individuals with no experience of how Parliament works, letalone Westminster or Whitehall.
At the same time, a Reform government will be aiming to implement a radical agenda and will no doubt clash with a civil service that will not be too pleased by their new overlords. If Reform is to succeed in its long-term goal of reorganising Britain and the British state according to its beliefs, then it needs individuals with knowledge and experience of the system they want to change. Defections from Tory MPs, particularly those with ministerial experience, provide that.
Conclusion
These are the reasons that Reform and Farage have and will continue to accept defections from Tory politicians up until the next General Election. This strategy by Farage makes perfect political sense and is, indeed, a clever one.
This strategy, though, comes with an obvious and highly enjoyable side effect: Reform is already developing a queue, not a cabinet. There are only so many golden goslings to go around – Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary, Chancellor of the Exchequer and, now, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
No one seriously expects Lee Anderson to be sent to charm the Mohammed Bin Salman, but Zia Yusuf, Richard Tice, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Danny Kruger and Nadhim Zahawi will all have their eyes on the same glittering prizes. There are already far fewer seats than egos, never mind any more marquee defections. Reform will soon discover that politicians in insurgent parties like power and status every bit as much as the establishment they claim to despise.
Harry Richer is the Director of Fighting for a Free Future, working for the Chairman, the Rt Hon Steve Baker. He has previously worked as the senior aide to Mr Baker and was intimately involved in all of Mr Baker’s national campaigns, including his work on the monetary system, Net Zero, and the Covid Recovery Group, acting as its Head of Research. He has also co-written multiple publications on Austrian School economics, including the 2024 Springer book, The Age of Debt Bubbles.
An attitude and skill that fewer aspire to these days of postmodern subjectivity, hence the need to promote it. Well done.
Good logic, Harry.